SWORDF1SH said:
He's right though. Even if the PS4 and X1 sell 100M each, can you see the Wii U selling 70M. And this is using the optimistic numbers for the X1 and PS4. |
Well, of course he's right. The Wii brought in people who weren't even gamers. A LOT bought it just for Wii Sports and/or Wii Fit. Of course, those same people grew tired of it after a few years and the mainstream public lost interest in it about mid-gen. Hence the reason many Nintendo fans were predicting it to take over the PS2's Best Selling Console title, when, in the end, it fell WAY short of it. Didn't even pass the PS1's 102.5M. Those people are gone, probably moved on to tablets or just stopped gaming altogether.
So, this gen we're going to move to numbers closer to Gen 6. Of course, giving the natural growth of the industry, it will be a little larger than those numbers. Gen 6 was PS2 (~160M)+Xbox(~24M)+GC(~22M) = 206M. I'm guessing for final numbers we should get something like: PS4(~130M)+XBO(~60M)+Wii U(~22M) = 212M.
And there's no way the XBO is going to even get close to 100M, let alone the 85M the 360 currently sits at. Really, the only two markets where it is doing well is NA and the UK. Thanks to drastic price drops, that has helped them stay ahead of the 360, for now. Of course, the 360 was a late bloomer, something I doubt the XBO can stay ahead of. And there's also the fact that during the slow months, the XBO has been performing poorly compared to even the weak start of the 360.
In mainland EU, there is little interest in the XBO, with the PS4 outselling it 3-5:1 in many countries. This means that the XBO can not even hope to match the 360's EU total of ~25M. And while Japan wasn't a large market for the 360, it still gave it an extra ~1.7M. The XBO is going to struggle to make it much past ~250K, so a ~1.45M defecit.
