OK, I faced it: WiiU can't sell over 15M

[wangjingwanjia]

I absolutely think that the Wii U will pass 15 lifetime, no doubt in my mind. But to make a guess for an actual lifetime sale I can not, it's really difficult to know how much it will sell in the end.

I usually say 30-40m, but to say 20-30m would be much more safe.

The GC and N64 that didn't sell all too well still made 4-6m lifetime in Japan so my bet is that the Wii U will do the same. It is already at 2m with a 1m/year average, similar to the two other systems.

When it comes to NA it would need to continue selling around its current numbers to reach 10-14, similar to the GC.

For EU the GC and N64 made 4-6 like in Japan, extremely low numbers actually. And just looking at the Wii U's numbers it seems to do worse than the other two, but not too worse, so it could make the same numbers.

For RoW I would think 1-2m would seem possible.

Add those numbers up and I will get 19-27m consoles WW lifetime sales.

Still I'm hoping for pricecuts and some wind in the sails for Nintendo. If things goes better in the coming years it could reach 40m, which for me would be a victory in itself, given the poor situation it has now. But yes, this is wishful thinking.

So can it make 15? Yes it will. Make 20? I do think so, yes. Make 30? Perhaps, it's not impossible but also not probable. Make 40? Seems impossible at the moment, something must really change for it to happen.

Does anyone have any numbers for how well(poorly) the GC, N64, Saturn and DC actually did in their 3 first years on the market? It would be really interesting to see. :)