Ps3 price cut all but confirmed before xmas .

[Borkachev]

The discussion of cost reduction is interesting... It's not a field I know much about, but aren't there other factors in bringing electronics costs down? For instance, I believe that the PS3 has been using a 65nm Cell chip since March, rather than the 90nm chip it launched with. What I was told at the time was that the smaller chip would not only reduce Cell costs directly (by increasing yields and reducing the failure rate), but that the lower heat of the chip would cause a cascade effect that would allow them to remove cooling hardware and rearrange the architecture of the machine for lower costs all around. And then there's the synthesizing of different components to reduce the overall number of components produced (like dropping the EE), which should also have a big effect.

I don't know how much Sony has dropped production costs so far, and without that information it's pretty pointless to speculate on how much they can drop the price. I find it hard to believe they're still losing $2-300 per console, or whatever number people are throwing around now (haven't BluRay diodes alone dropped from about $100 to about $10 since launch?), but it does sound like they're still losing money, in any case.

Personally... with the right lineup of games, I'd probably be willing to pay up with just a $100 drop. I don't think they should give a pack-in game, because ultimately I think people just look at the price tag, not what's in the box. But maybe that's the way they'll go, since it's a cheap way to add some perceived value (I can't imagine a game would cost them more than 1/3 the retail value). Chances of a MGS4 pack-in as someone mentioned are nil, as much as I'd love that - they would never include an M-rated game. LittleBigPlanet, though, could be a real possibility. It's first-party, it's a great tech demo, and it appeals to a wide audience. As a pack-in it would be a great answer to Wii Sports.

So without any real basis, here's my prediction: I think Sony is going to surprise us this Fall with a $150 price drop. That or a $100 price drop with LBP included.