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we know there will be no 90m wiis this gen
so there is much marketshare left ms and sony can gain in the future

not all casuals and Familys will move to mobile gaming only
now we just have to Count out the double console housholds, but at least 30m former nintendo consoles should be gained by sony and ms



edit: i see ~200m consoles for the hd twins this gen
even more, if they will be very cheap (99-149$) at the end of theire life and they (ms even more) can sell the consoles as a streaming and app box, too (like apple tv, fire tv etc)