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padib said:

Market Share & Game Library

I'll offer two points.

First, I would argue that what damage was done to the portable market by smartphones is done. In that same line of thinking, I would assume that the newness factor of smartphone smash hits has faded. Unless you have numbers showing me new IP after new IP that is just smash hit after smash hit, it's my understanding that people have now integrated smart phone gaming into their lives, and the negative influence on Nintendo's handheld market will not continue in a downtrend, but will either plateau or see a trend reversal due to Nintendo's known ability to create novelty, be it by hardware or software (new IPs).

Second, though Nintendo may be the only developer on the new "squadron" family of systems (which I highly doubt given 3rd party support on Nintendo's handheld line), with a concerted effort on one unified library, their output of games can double, thereby making the situation much more viable than the 3DS. If the 3DS with its library was able to sell a number, the bolstered library should cause a positive influence directly proportionate to the increase in the quality and size of the unified library.

I doubt that very much. Revenue of mobile apps (main share: mobile games) is climbing fast each year.

  • iOS app revenue 2012 = ~5 billion US$
  • iOS app revenue 2013 = over 10 billion US$
  • iOS app 2014 = over 3 billion US$ each quarter, probably 13 - 15 billion US$ for the whole year.
  • app revenue in the Google play store is growing even faster, together they will top $20 billion US$ this year
  • gamepad-extensions and similar solutions for iOS and Android get better and cheaper each month

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2014/01/07App-Store-Sales-Top-10-Billion-in-2013.html