padib said:
I'll answer your post as well as I can, if you're willing to talk. If you're just going to be defiant in some superiority war this will be my last reply to you in this thread. 1) The PSP was not a meshed device. It required games to be developed specifically for it, and games would need to be redevelopped to be released on the PS2 or PS3 following it. Do you understand why this will not be the case for Nintendo's next console? 2) Here are the points you wanted me to address: Market Share I believe that with this new strategy, Nintendo will be able to achieve sales that exceed the 3DS in terms of hardware sales. I expect the new platform to start big due to having double the software effort dedicated to a given machine as compared to the old paradigm. The 3DS marketshare is what I would consider a worst case scenario, with the DS marketshare a best-case scenario. The reason is simple. There is no logical reason to believe that sales should drop below 3DS levels of sales worldwide with a console with possibly twice the amount of software for it whilst sold at a more affordable price within a comparable competitive landscape. If you have a reason, please mention it. Growth Given the ability to transfer games then from the new handheld to the next new home console, by virtue of a shared API, I expect the momentum to stay strong in terms of hardware and software sales, but more importantly in terms of software sales. The reason is that, the more games released for a given console, the more appeal said console has. Due to the removed need of supporting two consoles, the library is no longer fragmented half-way into the lifespan of the handheld, as was the case for the 3DS for people who have been reading Nintendo's investors briefings. For that reason the new paradigm will only foster growth and sustained momentum of software and hence hardware sales. The combined hardware sales of the family of devices should far exceed the combined sales of devices sold this gen, yes despite overlapping sales this gen. Competition This was my question to you in OP. I prefer to read your answer, I've already given hints of my thoughts on the matter and have voted in the poll. Without stiffling discussion, I will just say that I believe that Sony and MS, upon seeing Nintendo's success, will scramble at competing with 1st party quality games, and will also attempt to blur the lines between a variety of hardware configurations, much like what happened with Move and Kinect when trying to catch up with the Wii. Cost of production As replied earlier, please read my posts, I don't expect the costs of the first of this new family of devices to exceed that of the DS. Game library See point "Market Share". Also this one goes without saying and is mostly understood for those who are informed. If you need more details on this I can provide them. |
1) Many devices offer this nowadays, and it has not been popular. Few people care about it.
Market Share & Game Library
Look at the downward trend in all handheld consoles in the last few years. Is this due to the product being old or a shift in the market due to phones and tablets? Sales of the 3DS are far lower than the DS, so actually it would be accurate to assume a negative trend rather than the same share. Nintendo being the main/only developer of games is the most limiting factor and there are no signs of this improving.
Growth
You ignore the lack of new IPs and how Japanese games are selling very poorly in recent years. You also incorrectly assume that console owners = handheld owners. This is not always true. Also why buy both platforms when you can get your favourite with all the games? Most people will see the possibility of svaing money rather than spending more.
Competition
You assume Nintendo will have a large success which is too presumptious. Also Sony are working on cloud based gaming so there is a good chance that Sony will have their entire games library accessable from a phone....Good luck competing with that. Also by 2016, tablet and phone hardware will be close to the power of consoles, so this is yet another platform for gaming.
Cost
Cheap products will have low specs. Low specs will mean it won't be apple to compete with leading tablets and phones. Also if the games are poorly designed (good chane they will be as Nintnedo have not dealt with new engines for a long time), then the game would be limited to the worst platform, ergo a powerful console would have a game that looks pants and with limited content due to size. This would be solved by having a state of the art handheld, but this would cost far more to develop and buy over a console, so most people would opt to buy the cheapest platform.
