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gulli on 20 December 2014
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DonFerrari said:
gulli said:
DonFerrari said:
gulli said:

What makes you so sure I am new here? Maybe I am a long time lurker?

Since I am only doing 100k steps and 500k respectively, I am still right unless it reaches 50k over my prediction or 250k respectively, but thanks for showing me where you come from. If it is 18.53k or even 18.7 in January I was prolly completely wrong for you. :)


When you give an interval without tolerances them I can't give you the owww it is still roundable to 700k... If I said WiiU were going to sell let's say 200k but it sold 160k or 240k would that mean basically the same because other options would be 100 or 300k??? Nope.

What make me think that? Low post count, coming to downplay sony sales, assumption that PS4 won't have any week over 700k WW during december even if the week after BF was already over it... or you are new, or you are an alt or you are bad at predicting.

This is a guessing game. Even VGC is just guessing. Do I as a "newbie" have to explain you "professional" this site? Do you really think those 713,315 are an exact number? Do you expect me to say 348,345 to 735,423 max per week? 17,934,722  to 18,563,291 at the end of 2014?

Seriously... lol...

Yeah well, now you have the tolerances, and those weekly sales really dont matter anyway. This thread is about it reaching 20 million, which I doubt and said 18 to 18.5 million instead, and I would still be basically right if it stayed below 20 million, but of course I wouldnt be an ass if it was like 19,796,326, because that difference could be tolerances.

We will see.


Nope, there is a difference between guess and estimative... even RoW numbers are what we would call guestimate based on some algorithms ioi pulled (they are quite of, but have a method)... I now exactly what those numbers represent, and already discussed with ioi why not put round numbers, but he explained that statisticaly he must put the exact number of his estimative to give the confidence interval. What you did wasn't that, you gave a round number and now want to say it was supposed to accept as much as 50k over 700 or under 400k to be inside your expectation when you didn't put that before.

You were the one that brought the 400-700 which was more torwards downplaying sales than anything else... you still haven't explained how it will sell under 700k everyweek if even on the week after NPD (which will probably be the lower week, perhaps only bigger than the week ending on January 3rd), so your point is still open.

And if you estimate 18-18.5M and it end up selling 19.7M how would you say you were right when you were more of the mark then people expecting 20M?? That is kind crazy.

And you also didn't answer to the undertracking going on PS4 for basically the begining of the year.... if you are indeed a long time lurker what were more or less the PS4 numbers on VGC during the milestones announcements?? You don't need to even give exact number, just give us an "estimative" of how off they were each time.

I would still be right because I said it would be under 20 million while almost everybody here says it will be at least 20 million. Not on my estimation auf 18 to 18.5 though of course. WTF are you thinking? I made several statements, the most prominent one that I think its not going to be 20 million, but less and you ignoring some of them like you feel?
And I didnt even say I would be right when its 19.7. Read again! You would say I was wrong when it would be 18.53, while I wouldnt say I was right (concerning the less than 20 million statement) when it would be 19.7! You looking at it like that is laughable with VGC numbers.

A couple of hundred thousands a month sometimes. I dont keep track of it that exactly. But thats nothing unusual for VGC, because they are GUESSING (same thing for me as estimating). That hasnt only happened to the PS4 in VGC history. Why the fuck do you think I am using such high tolerances???

I explained my low numbers in my first post. In any case that week estimate isnt even one of my main points, I just said that as a very rough measure. The less than 20 million and 18 to 18.5 million are.
I will be sure to write a fucking novel next time I know youre around, so you dont find any loopholes you can use for your side of the story. But I guess that wont be enough, since youre not shy putting words in my mouth either.

You know whats awesome? PS4 fanboys think I am wrong because I take too low numbers while Xbone fanboys think my numbers are too high (and think that VGC is crap anyway because its Sony biased). :)