Global Hardware Up 6 December 2014

[Pionner]

Mummelmann said:

Intrinsic said:

Mummelmann said:

One suffered a very big and equally predictable drop, NA accounting for almost 300k out of 515 shows the skewed balance in global numbers but also shows that my assumption all along is possibly correct (the One will win the US market, and likely the UK when all is said and done, and might end up at around 70% of the PS4's lifetime totals if things go well). At the very least; there is potential there for this console to do very well.

I don't agree with that assumption. Here's my take on it.

That assumption of yours is only correct and possible if one of two things happen. Either the XB1 remains cheaper than the PS4 in both NA and the UK for the remainder of this console generation or that somehow at the same price of the PS4 the XB1 still outsells it. We have seen that the latter of those two things isn't possible which leaves X1 with always being cheaper to sell better. 

Problem with a price war, which is basically what we are talkin about, is that there is a point where it stops to matter. 

To be fair, with only one year of sales data, we can't really make the assumption that the One will never be able to compete with the PS4 at the same price point even though this was the case in 2014, the PS4 also managed to become the superior choice for multiplat titles, not unlike the 360 in 2007 and 2008. We don't really know what the future holds, the PS3 and 360 showed that it is possible to improve drastically by securing support, advertising well, building a nice catalogue of software and add features, not to mention hardware revisions and pricing and showing consumer concern, Sony being willing to bleed to get the price into more acceptable territory and MS taking over a billion loss on the RRoD issue are good examples of this. The 360 even managed this vast improvement with a really poor start, both sales-wise and regarding the hardware failure rate scandal at launch, and we can't forget that both the PS3 and 360 were overshadowed by the insane sales of and media buzz around, the Wii.

Microsoft seem intent on putting up a real fight in the US and they are in a better economic position than either of the other two, and even though the xbox division is and has been under close scrutiny by MS central management; it is still in their best interest to maintain the image and trademark they made with the 360 through massive funds and effort, the xbox brand was a raging success after the 360. Sony didn't allow their image to die out either with the PS3, despite the rocky start it had, and I believe they'll (Sony) focus more on moving units in Europe than in the US since they already have such great traction there, it will cost them less than going into total war with MS in MS' strongest territory.
Ensuring support and providing developer incentive is a lot easier with a bigger installed base, as we all know, and I think MS will go all-out to remain relevant by using the US and UK markets for all they are worth, we also know that this is a strong brand with great potential in these regions, the US is to xbox what Europe is to Playstation.

Now, I may be wrong and I'm always open to that, but let's not forget how few believed that the One could take on the PS4 in November NPD, how few supported the very notion of the One even winning a single week or coming close in global figures and how many laughed at my year-end prediction when the One performed poorly at the beginning of the year and over the summer. There was even massive resistance against the notion that the One could secure a win on Black Friday and we saw how that went. I'll admit, seeing my year-end predictions, that I got quite a bit wrong this year (like most years...) and the One performed more poorly in the first three quarters of the year than I thought, but it came back with a vengeance and has performed a lot better than I thought it would during the holidays, likely leaving the year end total at basically the same figure.

You also snipped out the "at the very least the One has great potential" part, which is vital to my point and confirms the fact that I realize full well that I might be wrong.

All this said; I still think the One will win the US and UK markets, probably not by much though, and if MS makes the right moves (which they seem intent upon lately) then I also still believe that the One might sell about 70% of the PS4's lifetime total globally.

 

The XB1 would of performed exactly as everyone expected if they didn't go crazy with the price, free game bundles, and giftcards. The PS4 would of been the one to outsell it by even more than 400K. It wasn't easy for MS to take this holiday in the U.S. They pretty much gave away everything they possible could. All the while PS4 still sold well. Worldwide obviously is sold way more than XB1.

Keep in mind this was all without a price drop or bundle on the level of what MS had. Sony has plenty of cards to play in 2015. I think your 70% total sales for XB1 is a little much. I think it will be less than that. Remember PS4 is selling without it's major software yet to be released or price drop.