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Intrinsic on 19 December 2014
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Mummelmann said:


1. To be fair, with only one year of sales data, we can't really make the assumption that the One will never be able to compete with the PS4 at the same price point even though this was the case in 2014, the PS4 also managed to become the superior choice for multiplat titles, not unlike the 360 in 2007 and 2008. We don't really know what the future holds, the PS3 and 360 showed that it is possible to improve drastically by securing support, advertising well, building a nice catalogue of software and add features, not to mention hardware revisions and pricing and showing consumer concern, Sony being willing to bleed to get the price into more acceptable territory and MS taking over a billion loss on the RRoD issue are good examples of this. The 360 even managed this vast improvement with a really poor start, both sales-wise and regarding the hardware failure rate scandal at launch, and we can't forget that both the PS3 and 360 were overshadowed by the insane sales of and media buzz around, the Wii.

2. Microsoft seem intent on putting up a real fight in the US and they are in a better economic position than either of the other two, and even though the xbox division is and has been under close scrutiny by MS central management; it is still in their best interest to maintain the image and trademark they made with the 360 through massive funds and effort, the xbox brand was a raging success after the 360. Sony didn't allow their image to die out either with the PS3, despite the rocky start it had, and I believe they'll (Sony) focus more on moving units in Europe than in the US since they already have such great traction there, it will cost them less than going into total war with MS in MS' strongest territory.
Ensuring support and providing developer incentive is a lot easier with a bigger installed base, as we all know, and I think MS will go all-out to remain relevant by using the US and UK markets for all they are worth, we also know that this is a strong brand with great potential in these regions, the US is to xbox what Europe is to Playstation.

3. Now, I may be wrong and I'm always open to that, but let's not forget how few believed that the One could take on the PS4 in November NPD, how few supported the very notion of the One even winning a single week or coming close in global figures and how many laughed at my year-end prediction when the One performed poorly at the beginning of the year and over the summer. There was even massive resistance against the notion that the One could secure a win on Black Friday and we saw how that went. I'll admit, seeing my year-end predictions, that I got quite a bit wrong this year (like most years...) and the One performed more poorly in the first three quarters of the year than I thought, but it came back with a vengeance and has performed a lot better than I thought it would during the holidays, likely leaving the year end total at basically the same figure.

4. You also snipped out the "at the very least the One has great potential" part, which is vital to my point and confirms the fact that I realize full well that I might be wrong.

5. All this said; I still think the One will win the US and UK markets, probably not by much though, and if MS makes the right moves (which they seem intent upon lately) then I also still believe that the One might sell about 70% of the PS4's lifetime total globally.

  1. To be fair, I think this is an easy conclusion to arrive at. These consoles will never be more expensive than they are this year, and with the coming years their prices will only get lower. We have clearly seen how well the PS4 will outsell the X1 when its cheaper and how much it will outsell it when its at the same price. And we have seen how well the X1 will outsell the PS4 when its cheaper and having great bundles. I know one year is not enough to draw any long term conclusions, but if the conclusions being drawn are based on things that can be factually backed already then I don't see what the problem is. Everything you have actually said, including the PS4 becoming the multiplat console of choice, all point towards the X1 not taking NA and UK in the long term.

  2. The better economic postion MS is in seems to mislead a lot of people into thinking sony can't or won't do anything. Where as thats just not how this industry works. If you look at the PS3, at $600 laucnh price, sony was already losing $280 on every console sold. $280!!!. And they still dropped the price of the consle the following year. It was as simple for them as it is for MS now, drop the price or die. But MS had such a large price advantage with the 360 that no matter how many times sony dropped its price, theer was always a 360 that cost less.

    Now lets look at this gen. Funny thing is that even though the PS4 is more powerful than the XB1, it actually costs less to make than the XB1. Even though its just by like $10. But sony is a hardwrae company, so you should expect any improvements to the overall design and thus cheaper build of either console to be made on the playstation first. But thats not even what is important here, what is important is that by this time next year, it could cost sony les than $299 making each PS4. And it would cost MS about the same thing or a little bit more making each XB1. At that price point, either company can decide to bundle a game or two or sell at $250 and take a loss of $50 on every console sold that could be made back the second 2 games are sold.

    Something a lot of people aren't considering, is that the dominance PS has as a brand in the EU gives them options that MS simply does not have. So can easily drop the price of the PS4 to $249-$299 in NA if that is where they need to be to have price parity with the X1, but only drop the price to $349 in EU. Knowing they would still outsell the X1 over there no matter what and instantly making up for the lower price in NA.

    Point, is that a lot of the assumptions being made now are that sony will just sit back and do nothing cause thats what they did this year. I don't thik that is going to be the case. Never in the history of sony and the playstation have they been the just sit back and do nothing kinda company.

  3. Well, I get what you mean here; though in my defence i never felt that the X1 wouldn't take NA at a lower price and with the kinda bundles and deals it had and with sony doing nothing for that month. 

  4. Again, I get what you mean here, and I am in agreement with it. Basically, I only quoted the parts of your post that I didn't agree with. Yes, the X1 has a lot of potential, and MS is doing exactly whta it needs to do now to stay in this fight. 

  5. This is where I do not agree with. Yes, MS seems intent to doing the right moves, but you are basing this all off a time where sony is in no hurry or need to do a single thing. Technically speaking, this is the least competitive sony will ever be with the PS4. What happens when they strat fighting back too? And unlike MS, sony really only has to bring that fight to just one terriotory. Nothing stops sony from reducing the price of the PS4 in just the one territory that they stand to lose, it won't be the first time they have done something like that.

    And for that 70% prediction to work, then basically the X1 has to win NA or at least tie with the PS4 in NA. Honestly thats a sound prediction, but one I just can't garee with until I see what hapens when as I keep saying, sony actually comes into the fight in NA.