Mummelmann said:
| Shinobi-san said:
Yeah I agree with this.
PS4 numbers is impressive but you need to take into consideration the context. Compared to the best years of the highest selling consoles, its not impressive yet. However, the first year is never the peak year of a console. Over the next 2 - 3 years we should be able to tell if PS4 can match the peak years of Wii & PS2. I dont see that happening though.
Compared to the first year of other consoles, the numbers is definitely impressive, but still not quite at Wii levels.
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Pretty much, I don't think we can expect the PS4 to have the same yoy growth as the PS3/360 did, or even the PS2 with its all around perfect market conditions, both software and hardware will likely be more front-loaded than in the extremely long 7th generation. Certainly won't beat the Wii's initial growth, it was so heavily supply constrained for the entire first CY, a 50% increase yoy from 1st to 2nd CY is likely something that will never be matched by another console.
Hard to predict anything at this point but I do think that the PS4's peak year will be in the ~20 million region, furthermore; I believe this will be in 2016.
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The new consoles also seem to be lacking something that the last gen consoles had, and that is new gaming experiences. This is obviously subjective, but the Wii did motion gaming right, the PS3 and 360 brought cinematic gaming with COD, Gears and Uncharted.
The PS4 and XB1 just seem to be an enhancement on the last gen in terms of game design. And while it doesnt seem to have a big impact on sales now, i definitely think it will impact the growth down the line.
