| enrageorange said: One thing to note is that you are using infoscout's percentages for if people are buying their console for a child with vgchartz black friday sales. You shouldn't mix and match sources when they use different methods for collecting data. In this case, Infoscout's survey was specifically based on reciepts from Walmart and Target and not the entire US video game market so its gift percentages are only valid for sales from Walmart and Target. Xbox one held a 53% marketshare in those stores. PS4 held a 31% marketshare. And this is just for Target and Walmart. We have no information on the rates from any other stores. Though I suspect both Target and Walmart sell far more consoles in general as gifts than a typical gamestop or bestbuy. |
walmart and target were also the two stores offering the best deals on xb1. Our data has the x1 at 40%, which could mean that 13% of the market was affected by the walmart and target discounts. Ps4 had no price drop in walmart and target any better than normal year bundles (slightly better with gta5 and tlou), and their market percentage matched our 31% data.
So, MCC + Unity and black flag @329$ can theoretically lift the xb1 above ps4 sales, if we take your analysis that 18% of xb1 were not for kids vs 17%. It's still extremely close.
On top of which, the numbers correspond for userbase age demographic over 4 years time, and with the numbers we've had in the US the full year.
Additionally, 53% and 31% reflect a marketshare between the "twins" as 58.5% to 41.5% favoring xb1, which aligns favorably with the past gen numbers of holiday vs yearly sales data.
I think it's pretty conclusive. Unless MS can keep a 329$ bundle with 3 games during the year, they will lose 2015 Q1-Q3
