Arkaign Predicts:
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Some REALLY tough ones this week. About half of these will depend on who brings more fire to the game, as so much is on the line for many of these teams.
Tossups :
ARI vs STL (STL is better than most give them credit for)
MIN vs DET (DET is way worse than most give them credit for, but MIN still mostly sucks)
PIT vs ATL (ATL putting up so many on GB means they're dangerous, and PIT has been pulling the old Cowboys W/L/W/L/W/L routine this year)
HOU vs IND (IND is largely Luck and his receivers along with a bunch of CFL-level players, and HOU has sucked less of late)
CIN vs CLE (I may change this pick later. Hoyer is god fucking awful as a QB, CLE has only survived on their defense through the year. I'm not huge on Manziel, but who knows why they are sticking with Hoyer who has been garbage for many many games now)
WAS vs NYG (First Toilet bowl of the week, but pride on the line in the NFC East literally means anything can happen, including injuries. NY should win, but WAS can do all-in blitzes, and Eli could get banged up or make critical mistakes if they don't adjust to that. 2-step drop and dink/dunk is how you beat that, and I'm hopeful that they burn WAS to the ground for that kind of reckless strategy)
NYJ vs TEN (Second Toilet bowl of the week, I think home field advantage is all you can say about this. The single TEN game I watched this year I thought they were better than they were given credit for, but they still don't mesh as a team. The young QB is promising though, maybe at another team like WAS, lol)
NO vs CHI (NO has flipped and been decent on the road and garbage in their dome lately. As bad as NO looks, I think they'll angrily bounce back, and CHI is self destructing and has nothing to play for. Not a division rivals game, so I don't expect half the CHI team to even care, just show up, get wrecked, collect their checks, and go home in silence)
Easy ones :
GB > BUF. BUF isn't bad, but GB is worlds above them.
SEA > SF. It IS a division rivals game, amongst teams that hate each other. But the talent gap here is staggering, and there's a lot of division and strife within SF as a club. I don't expect them to pull together as a team and put a unified perfect effort, which would be necessary to not get nerfed at home once again.
NE > MIA. Miami is overrated. They've been lucking their way into wins with big risks, and playing above their talents. They remind me of some of the Dallas 8-8 teams, lots of weaknesses, but often enough find a weird way to win. Just not enough to play against a gelled NE team. The game earlier this year may as well have been preseason. Also, pride is on the line, I'm sure NE is still angry about how the first game turned out, so I expect a beastly game from the Pats. Miami's run defense won't be able to stuff the run without bringing the safeties in, and if they do that Brady, Gronk, and Co will torch the piss out of them up the field.
DEN > SD. SD is overrated. They're also banged up, whereas DEN is getting healthier. The only wild card here is that Peyton really is throwing ducks regularly now. A couple errant passes could flip this one. Luckily for DEN, their running game and defense should hold court against the batteries.
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And the penultimate game for me : DAL vs. PHI. This one really depends on which version of each team shows up. Effort shouldn't be a question, as both teams have everything to lose here. I think with both teams playing at their best, Dallas will win based on the offensive line. Seattle basically showed the blueprint on how to beat them in terms of metrics. However, Dallas defense will have to play the best game of the year to keep them in it. If the O-line and Dallas run game can keep making long, slow, grueling drives, then the defense has a chance. I guarantee this : whoever wins time of possession wins that game. My best hope is for PHI to be overconfident with this one.
It's sort of a phyrric win for either team though. I think Dallas is capable of beating SEA again (no guarantee, but it's possible maybe 40/60), but Dallas wouldn't be able to win vs. GB I don't believe. And PHI would lose to both of them easily, based on how the matchups work out. I may be a Dallas fan, but I guarantee you either GB or SEA will be in the SB this year barring some insane injury. For that matter, we know that either NE or DEN will be the AFC representative in the SB. So everything else is just for show imho.
In fact, I'd put greater than 50/50 on it being GB vs. NE. And that would be an AWESOME SB. Let's call that 55% probable.
20% probable GB vs. DEN
15% probable SEA vs NE
10% probable SEA vs. DEN
