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My thoughts here:

So they announce >10 million sold in early August, and 13.5 million shipped by the end of September.

They sold 728k in the US alone in August+September, so that's 10.7 million right there.

Assuming ratios between the US and ROTW remained constant within 5% since the last couple of sales updates (about 35:65), ROTW should be anywhere between 1,092,000 and 1,699,000. That means sales would be anywhere between 11.8 million to 12.4 million sold at the end of September (Basically where VGC has it at).

Now in October, we saw sales go down in the US (of course) by 45%. Now ROTW might not of dropped as much, but still, if the ratio remained constant this month as well, then that is additional 446k to 693k in ROTW. That means sales as of October could be anywhere from 12.5 million to 13.4 million (VGC is within the range, but closer to the high end).

Now November. This is most likely the cause of everything. Assuming the number of PS4's at the end of October are the high end, 13.4 million, they only sold 700k in November. An impossibility. If they were closer to the lower end, 12.5 million, then they sold 1.6 million in November. A possible outcome, as we have no idea on what the US sales are in November until Thursday, and the number would be close to the low end estimate of August+September, which were pretty strong months for PS4 sales.

Or a more likely scenario. These numbers don't include the final week of November.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287