Why would PS4 win December NPD?

[Shiken]

thx1139 said:

Shiken said:

thx1139 said:

Shiken said:
The PSX will have a lot of driving momentum. Also The Order and Bloodborne drop right out of the gate in 2014 while the X1 will have next to nothing exclusive wise.

Could go either way, but the reasons are there.

So how many copies of The Order and Bloodborne do you expect will be sold the first month of release? Then guestimate how many will go to new console buyers.

The Order will do well and Bloodborne will do exceptionally well.  My point is actually in your sig, it is libraries that sell consoles.  The PS4 has more Retail exclusives available than X1, more announced retail exclusives (both upcoming and far off), and more heavy hitters than X1 on Metacritic.  While Sunset and Forza scored higher than LBP3 and Driveclub, the PS4 games score just as well overall.

Above or equal to 80 Retail only X1

forza H 2, Titanfall, Sunset Overdrive, Halo MCC

Above or equal to 80 Retail only on PS4

Infamous SS, MLB The Show 2014, Final Fantasy AAR, The Last of Us Remastered

Pretty evenly matched as far as I can see.  Now lets throw in the other games that didn't score so high (I value all of these as I don't judge by meta like some do, just using as a reference).

Killzone SF, Knack, Natural Docturine, Samurai Warriors 4, Driveclub, Little Big Planet 3

Vs

Dead Rising 3, Ryse, Forza 5

As you can see, the PS4 has more games without even talking about indies.  Furthermore buyers will have two exclusives to look forward to right out of the gate in 2015 with PS4 while X1 is pretty much bare till mid-year.  And of course there will be a lot of hype generated pending on what is shown at the PSX and superior multiplats throughout for most games.  Don't get me wrong, the X1 is swinging hard here.  Overall the PS4 just has a lot more going for it both in the short term and in the long term.

So again, it could go either way, I'm betting PS4.

We were talking about what will drive December sales and 1st quarter sales.  The claim is that because of The Order and Bloodborne PS4 will get a healthy boost both in December (very unlikely) and 1st quarter (not much). So my belief that libraries sell systems more then an individual game still stands. We all knoe reviews are subjective and games for different systems are reviewed by different sites.  It is widely accepted that the PS4 library of high profile games has slacked behind the X1s in so far (not by much, by behind). 2 exclusives being added at the same time as many other 3rd parties are not going to make consumers run to the PS4 in droves in the 1st quarter when so many new games (exclusive and non-exclusive) are on the way and so many games are already available for new owners.

Your missing the piont.  The only thing the X1 has right now is a temporary price cut and some bundles.  With the PSX, a lot  of hype and momentum will be focused toward the library of Sony's upcoming games.  With that the prospect of having two big name exclusives drop soon while already outdoing the X1 library, people will be more willing to give in to the momentum created by Sony's event.

And to say that it is "widely accepted" that X1 has a slightly better library is just as subjective to what sites you read your info from as reviewers.  Myself and everyone I know feel the X1 exclusives are truly lacking.  Hell one of my friends got an X1, and sold it a week later.  Also I'm the only one that thinks Sunset looks any good (Sunset and Forza are the only X1 games I would consider interesting to me).  See, opinions can't only be an argument for reviews and then be irrelevant to what it "widely accepted".

With that in mind, the only thing left to look at is pricing and momentum.  As of now, X1 has the pricing temporarily.  But all of the momentum will be with Sony.  As I have said, it could go either way.  The advantage will be with Sony after PSX based on what they reveal though.