jetforcejiminy said:
[2] paper mario and mario tennis are not really comparable. they are mario spin-offs but paper mario has shown greater longevity and great sales potential as a series. the only mario tennis game that sold exceptionally well was mario tennis on n64, which sold 2.32m. otherwise, many mario tennis titles, even on more successful platforms, have done badly, settling in at around 500k (true both of gba, gbc and 3ds mario tennis games). not one paper mario game has ever sold below 1m. in fact the least successful was the first, after which every single one (of three) sold over 2m, with super paper mario selling an astonishing 3.66 even tho it didn't conform to ttyd/original paper mario gameplay. even the indisputably shitty sticker star sold over 2m. no way are these two franchises comparable, let's not kid ourselves. mario maker, which is what you're comparing them to, is completely unproven. if anything the closest thing to it nintendo has released is mario paint for the snes. that sold 2.75m [.71m in japan] btw. don't strain to create parallels where there are none, it undermines your already wafer-thin argument. [3] no dispute here, mario party always does exceedingly well for them (this is the only one of your equivalencies that isn't a false one, which is appropriate coz as you point out, they're the same series) [4] c'mon. jungle beat and donkey konga were completely new properties with (then) bizarre controls. they are some of the worst selling dk games ever (tho they still did ok for all that). comparing this to yoshi and kirby is downright irresponsible. kirby i think will probably do 800k-1.2m (~.33-.45m in japan based on canvas curse sales) depending on price point (there have been some rumblings suggesting a 39.99 price like captain toad, which would i think make it more of an impulse buy). yoshi however i think stands a chance to be the best yoshi game (not much competition) since yoshi's island. good-feel are proven to consistently make million sellers, even when it's a weird wario land game (shake it/shake dimension), which despite the fact that no wario game had been released in 6+ yrs, still sold 1.14m. kirby's epic yarn sold a whopping 2.02m [.5m in japan]. i think yoshi will sell somewhere between these two, 1.2m-2.0m and will probably be the go-to platformer of 2015 (there aren't many others). jungle beat and donkey konga were budget curiosities to most people upon release (even tho jungle beat is in some ways a dry run for the galaxy games and terrific in itself). kirby and yoshi are not. [5] devil's third has something which twin snakes did not which is a multiplayer mode. in fact i think this, like splatoon, will be disproportionately focused on the multiplayer element (tho splatoon will probably have an interesting story mode, judging from the recent story trailer from the last direct). i don't know how it will do. but depending on how bayonetta 2 does (and it's done pretty well so far, charting no. 1 in na on its release week with only two days of sales), and whether this is well-reviewed (it's itagaki, who did make ninja gaiden black), it could do anywhere between your lowball figure of 400k and 800k (probably closer to where zombiu did, which i think will end up being 800k and is already 730k). [6] i'm not going to comment on this, it's self-evidently absurd. i'll just reiterate your own equation: pikmin 2 = star fox. [7] again, naruto clash of ninja 3 = xenoblade. ok dude. xenoblade chronicles x will do well in japan; the reason xenoblade didn't do well in the us was the limited distribution deal with gamestop/ebgames in canada. this will be widely released. that's nowhere near the same thing. it's like expecting a cult movie that's only showing in la and nyc to do as well the avengers. not happening. xenoblade is getting the avengers treatment in 2015. it'll be one of the three blockbuster jrpgs of 2015--persona 5 and ffxv being the two others. and it's going to outsell persona 5 because xenoblade has already, with all its distribution handicaps, outsold every single persona game to date globally, and all but two in japan. i agree with me too, i think it's much better and there are actually more games--possibly another paper mario title will be announced in a few hours, animal crossing, etc. all million sellers on gc, paper mario 2.25m. animal crossing especially is riding new leaf's wave of popularity. i think animal crossing u could be the definitive title for the series. we'll see tho. tl;dr stop making silly parallels coz it helps no-one and it cheapens the discussion |
Please stop using global sales for ur arguments, we are talking strictly about Japan so they are completely irrelevant.
Also I'm not trying to say those games are all completely similar, I'm talking about sales potential.
Yoshi's New Island (most recent Yoshi title) has sold about 210k and Kirby Canvas Curse (the most similar title to Rainbow Curse) sold 320k. These are the best games to compare Yoshi's Woolly World & Kirby Rainbow Curse to, so these games will likely sell similar to the previously mentioned titles. This also happens to be similar to what Donkey Kong Jungle Beat & Donkey Konga sold.
Pikmin 2 sold 560k in Japan which is a little more than the 4 console Star Fox titles have averaged so that's a pretty good comparison right there.
Paper Mario & Mario Power Tennis each sold 460k in Japan, will Mario Maker or Splatoon sell more than that? Maybe, but both are new and unproven ip so 460k would be pretty good.
Metal Gear Solid: The Twin Snakes sold 70k and is a very popular franchise in Japan, Devil's Third may or may not sell better than that but it's very very unlikely to be a strong seller, seeing as games like Fatal Frame V & Bayonetta 2 have sold poorly on Wii U. M rated games just haven't been big sellers on Wii U.
Mario Party 6 sold 600k, that seems like a reasonable estimate for Mario Party 10.
And like has already been discussed, Zelda hasn't been the big seller it once was. Between Wind Waker, Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword the series has averaged about 600k so we can expect Zelda U to sell similar.
Xenoblade Chronicles on Wii sold less than 200k on Wii, XCX might sell better than it but will it be a huge leap? Probably not, Naruto Clash of Ninja 3 sold 440k, maybe XCX can match those sales.
So once again Wii U lineup for 2015 looks very good, I'm excited about many of those titles but it's not likely that many of them will have a huge impact on sales. This year had Donkey Kong Country (all previous console entries were over 1 million in Japan), Smash Bros and Mario Kart which are some of Nintendo's biggest sellers yet the system will be down YOY in Japan, next year will likely continue to see sales decrease since none of the games releasing next year are likely to be as big as the ones released this year.
Wii U in 2015 will probably sell roughly what GC did in 2004 for Japan.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
