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As most games this generation for Nintendo, it's difficult to gauge. Xenoblade Chronicles managed to get close to a million and was one of the most downloaded titles in the year it was released. X looks to have a much broader appeal and many more people seem to know and care for its existence. From what we've seen so far it also appears to improve on many aspects of the previous installment. The biggest drawback it has is the relatively small amount of people who own a Wii U.

Nintendo is also pushing this franchise a lot, with Shulk already appearing in Smash, Gaur Plains having a stage with 1 of only 3 stage bosses, Xenoblade Chronicles getting a remaster for the 3DS. In the end I do think it has decent shot at getting to a million.