Could Nintendo (gulp) possibly fall below 10 million 3DS shipments for the fiscal year? I would hope not but it looks like Japan alone will be down about 1.5-2 million even with the New 3DS, and they only shipped 12 million last year total.
If they're down 1.5-2 million sold in Japan for the year, they must have the US and Euro markets hold steady and right now they're not.
Also I suspect all hardcore Nintendo fans now basically own a 3DS ... because Smash did not move the hardware needle at all, so that indicates everyone who wanted Smash (Nintendo fans) already bought one; makes sense as the Smash fan should be interested in other Nintendo IP.
Nintendo probably is hitting the saturation point of their main fanbase.