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For the next 3 years, $500 no way.
Maybe I would pay $400 a year and a half from now, but probably not any sooner as there is too many PS2 games I haven't played yet, plus lots of wii games coming out, and not enough games out that are that much better to justify the price for me even at $400 this year.

I don't have a HD TV, and don't see a reason for a PS3 without one, and I don't see me getting one for over a year.

For me to purchase it today, without me having a HDTV to hook it to, and without many games for it (besides PS2 games), it would have to be down to $250. As quality and quantity of exclusive titles increase, the amount I am willing to pay will too.  FPS games is one of the the least interesting genres for me.