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what seems to occur in these type of threads is a lot of people pull a number from somewhere and then try to justify it , rather than looking at historical sales trends over the full year and comparing that to the present ,then using that data to come up with a figure.
It might not be perfect but you should have a good guesstimate , even if it's turns out wrong it still better than getting there based on luck or intuition and you have another set of data to use for the next time and time after etc. etc.

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