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Ha, missed this thread this week.  Media Create didn't quite turn out how this predicted.

Smear-Gel said:
People dont seem to realise how niche Captain Toad is and also likely how cheap it was to make. Like someone else said, the main resource used for this was likely creativity.

Pokemon probably costs peanuts to develop compared to other stuff, but if it sold like 200k first week (which would likely more than recoup costs), that'd still be a disappointing performance.