Is the 360 in trouble?

[shams]

BengaBenga said:
Shams:

Personally I feel that every single copy of GTA4 sold for 360 is an absolute victory for Microsoft. It's a slap in the face for Sony. It also prevents Sony from an extreme boost in console sales. I think without a 360 GTA4 version PS3 could have seen at least 2 million extra consoles sold.

I think it's way too dramatic to assume that the 360 could be dead by Jan 2009. Even when hardware sales decline dramatically (there's no sign to that, currently the track higher than last year) the software sales are heroic.

Like I said above, Microsoft doesn't need to beat the PS3 to be successful.

Oh, I agree completely. But it depends how things play out - and also on the definition of "dead".

Hate to drag the PSP into this, but in many respects I believe it is dead - on life support from Sony. If Sony take away their resources from software dev, the handheld will die off pretty quickly (still be around for years though - but by the same token the XBOX is still "around").

...

Worst situation for MS:  GTA sells really well on 360 at launch, as it does on PS3. However very little hardware boost to 360 (existing owners buying it), whereas huge PS3 boost. Over time (say 3 months), weekly 360 sales for GTA drop faster on the 360 than they do on the PS3 - to the point where the PS3 GTA outsells it in the US.

360 sales drop to close to pre-GTA levels. PS3 sales stay at elevated levels, and significantly higher than weekly sales of 360 in US.

Final straw would then be: MS drop price of 360 in US. Hardware sales spike, then fall off to almost pre-price cut levels. PS3 sales stay above 360 levels post price cut.

Then Sony drops PS3 prices pre-Xmas, sales skyrocket, a couple of PS3 exclusives do well (HOME, LBP?), CoD5 PS3 sales match 360 sales. PS3 easily beats 360  over Xmas period (in US). PS3 now easily outselling 360 in every territory.

Game over.

(not saying this will happen - but if things don't pan out post-GTA for the 360, this is the danger MS faces. Just like BluRay v HD-DVD - when the end comes, it could come pretty quickly. MS will not throw in the towel, but unless they can pull out a killer-app - something they have always struggled at - public perception will be that its game over).