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I felt the Wii would have still outsold PS360 without third party but like you said, around a 10m gap. Last gen, the Nintendo and Wii brand itself was overpowered that even a "game" such as Wii Fit sold beyond most third party can dream of.

Games like Just Dance was big but wasn't required for Wii's success in hardware sales, that was just extra icing that probably pushed an extra few million hardwares at best but never thought it was a system seller. Likely 99% of Wii owners bought the Wii for the Nintendo games.