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Pretty easy for MS to counter this. Free MCC for anyone buying on Black Friday week.

People respond more to actual price drops rather than bundles, it's been that way for ages.

Nintendo had $150 GameCube w/free Metroid Prime or Mario Sunshine or Animal Crossing for ages, but then they dropped the free game and cut the price of the console to $99.99 and that caused a far larger hardware bump.

People are kinda stupid. They just look at the lower price.