Vita Overtracked?

[Kresnik]

While I suspect it is overtracked, I believe it's not for the reasons you're listing in the OP.

Asia is becoming an increasingly important market these days. Look at all the traditional Chinese localizations you see announced from Japan from games that'll never come to the west - Shining Resonance & Yakuza 0 from SEGA, for example. Sony especially have had a big push in Asia re-branding as Sony Computer Entertainment Japan-Asia over there and pushing stuff like Freedom Wars and Oreshika hard at Taipei Game Show last year.

If you look at sales figures for something like Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment -

http://gematsu.com/2014/11/sales-figures-revealed-latest-naruto-one-piece-sword-art-online-games

400k worldwide, of which we know 238k are sold through in Japan:

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/show?platform=PSV

(with probably a fair bit more shipped there too).

But that still leaves something like 120-130k missing.

Digital only in the west means they're unlikely to be here, too Even if the game did well we're looking at a few tens of thousands of sales. So the rest, logically, would be the only remaining place it has released - Asia.

I'm not saying the console won't be overtracked in "other", but I think the reason it's tracking as it is there is because of the support in Asia outside of Japan.