NPD vs Amazon, the predictive ability of Amazon monthly top 100 to identify the NPD winner.

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Table showing NPD winner and runner up each month since Jan 2013, and the Amazon monthly rankings.

Month

NPD #1

NPD #2

Amazon 1

Amazon 2

Amazon 3

Amazon 4

Amazon 5

Amazon 6

NPD #1:#2

Most skus in top 100

Amazon 1 = NPD win?

Amazon most skus = NPD win?

01/13

360

PS3

360 #71

PS3 #93

1.42

N/A

N

N/A

02/13

360

PS3

PS3 #44

360 #51

Ouya #53

360 #73

PS3 #79

360 #85

1.12

360

N

Y

03/13

360

PS3

PS3 #37

360 # 64

360 #88

1.23

360

N

Y

04/13

360

PS3

PS3 #30

360 #56

1.26

N/A

N

N/A

05/13

360

PS3

PS3 #48

360 #72

1.34

N/A

N

N/A

06/13

360

PS3

360 #63

Ouya #82

1.28

N/A

Y

N/A

07/13

360

PS3

Ouya #58

1.53

Ouya

N

N

08/13

360

PS3

1.29

N/A

N/A

N/A

09/13

PS3

360

PS3 #13

360 #42

360 #74

N/A

360

Y

N

10/13

360

PS3

360 #23

PS3 #36

360 #60

N/A

360

Y

Y

11/13

PS4

X1

360 #29

X1 #51

PS3 #78

360 #88

1.26

360

N*

N

12/13

X1

PS4

X1 #4

PS4 #8

360 #81

360 #87

1.05

360

Y

N

01/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #3

X1 #16

360 #74

1.92

N/A

Y

N/A

02/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #3

X1 #23

1.10

N/A

Y

N/A

03/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #1

X1 #11

X1 #76

1.19

X1

Y

N

04/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #5

X1 #24

360 #90

1.73

N/A

Y

N/A

05/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #6

X1 #39

Wii U #60

360 #87

2.56

N/A

Y

N/A

06/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #8

X1 #49

X1 #50

Wii U #59

360 #83

1.37

X1

Y

N

07/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #8

X1 #46

Wii U #59

360 #78

1.43

N/A

Y

N/A

08/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #4

X1 #50

X1 #58

Wii U #70

1.19

X1

Y

N

09/14

PS4

X1

PS4 #6

PS4 #11

X1 #28

1.89

PS4

Y

Y

10/14

PS4?

X1?

PS4 #8

PS4 #23

X1 #36

??

PS4

?

?

predictive accuracy

60

36.6

predictive accuracy current gen

90.9

16.67

Edit: corrected Sept 2013, I mis-read the table in the NPD thread and didn't read the title. Credit Ethomaz for spotting the mistake.

When assessing the Amazon monthly ranking I only included the consoles / skus that would actually be counted for NPD (except for Ouya because I wanted to show when Ouya actually showed up on Amazon). So for instance for Oct 2014 I did not include the Ass creed or CoD bundles for Xb one, as these bundles won't contribute to NPD hardware for Oct. Also for Sept/Oct PS4 and Xb one pre-orders are not included. These pre-orders threw up what I think is the single anomoly for 8th gen in that 360 won the Amazon mothly but PS4 and Xb one were the 1 and 2 consoles in NPD.

As you can see Amazon is very spotty at predicting the NPD winner during the end of the 7th generation, whether you look at top selling sku, or console with the most sku's in the to 100. Most skus in the top 100 is slightly better, but it was still unreliable.

The picture changes dramatically in the 8th generation and Amazon has proven to be very accurate indeed at predicting the NPD winner. With only Nov 2013 showing an anomoly and that's largely down to the fact there were no PS4's available anywhere with almost all theAmazon sales for PS4, and most of the Xb one sales being recorded in the Sept and Oct Amazon monthlies. However if you look at the position of the PS4 in the October 2013 monthly it is the highest placed console at 20, So Oct 2013 accurately predicts the NPD winner for Nov 2013.

One interesting thing in the change of generation is how high the console hardware places in the monthly chart. This of course is partly due to the slowing pace of console sales in 2013 prior to November. But may also be due to Amazon selling more hardware than it did before this generation. The anomalous Nov 2013 aside, the top ranked sku has never been outside the top 10 for the month. It's highly unlikely Amazon is selling less software and accessories, so that means Amazon must be selling quite a bit of hardware. I know there have been reports of Amazon having a substantial market share in video games, but I believe that was HW, accessories and software combined. I don't think I've seen any figures on straight hardware market share.

Only 4 times in the table does the highest ranked console match with the most skus in the top 100, and because of the one oddity where Ouya is the highest ranked, and only sku in the top 100 that combination also fails to have a 100% success rate at predicting the NPD winner. But it's a very low sample size. It's often the case that no one console has the most skus in the top 100.

Only twice so far has the NPD winner appeared to outsell the NPD second placed console 2:1 (or better) on Amazon. That being PS4 in Sept and October 2014. We don't know the Oct numbers yet (and we may never know) but the Sept NPD did not give PS4 a 2:1 ratio in sales aver Xb one.

So how certain can we be that PS4 will win October? I think on the basis that since Dec 2013 Amazon has had a 100% record at predicting the NPD winner we can be very confident that PS4 will win the October NPD, and quite comfortably. But it's unlikely PS4 will sell 2:1.

How is November shaping up? As of the 6 Nov Amazon monthly update we have several skus in the top 100. But what's significant is that Xb one, at present, has the top 3 skus. If this pattern remains then X1 Amazon sales will be 3:1 in favour of Xb one. However the Sunset Overdrive bundle is likely to quickly fall below the top PS4 sku, which should climb in ranking. And the Destiny PS4 sku should also climb fairly well. However it is still likely to be the case that Xb one is in a 2:1 position over PS4 on the Amazon monthly for at least the first 2 weeks of the month. There are several other skus coming later in the month so the top 100 monthly might ger very crowded with hardware. At present it looks like the Ass Creed Xb one bundle may be the top selling sku for the month. And provided the top PS4 sku is not too close, and there is more or less alternating positions of the PS4 and Xb one skus through the top 100 Amazon should accurately predict the Nov NPD winner based on the top seling sku. However if there is a PS4 and Xb one sku in the top 10, and one or oher console has most of the other higher sales positions it's possible Amazon won't correctly predict the NPD winner. The other unknown is how much market share Amazon gets from Black Friday. It feels like the brick and mortar stores get more of the sales glory from Black friday than online retailers. But I could be wrong about that.

I think once the end of the month rolls around and the final monthly ranking is available Amazon will correctly predict the Nov NPD winner. If Amazon can be 100% for 2014, I think it will accurately predict the NPD winner for most of the generation. Though I think later in the generation, when hardware sales start dropping year on year amazon will become more erratic.