Oct 25th Hardware UP

[holmen]

domflo said:

holmen said:

I'm wondering about one thing, how to estimate number of machines stores have on the shelves?
I have been to two electronic supermarkets and both had really big piles of xb1:s and ps4:s (but both stores had just a single wii-u)
My guess is that they keep a big stock preparing for Christmas sales.
And now how to estimate number of ps4:s and xb1 on shelves.
Probably only MS and Sony can know how many they produced, and how many of those that contacted their servers.
So if someone say 2 mil ps4:s on shelves are impossible, how do they know/calculate that?

The second fiscal quarter just ended and the companies announced how many of their products were shipped (produced in their factories and then sent to retailers). Since there is a ~2 million discrepancy between VGCs numbers for the PS4 and Sony's shipment numbers, VGC assumes that 2 million PS4's are on shelves at retailers, since VGC tracks sold numbers.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were more PS4's or Xbox One's on shelves than Wii U's though. That's the case at every store I go to. 2 million PS4's out there seems like a stretch, but considering that almost any Saturn or MediaMarkt around my are has roughly 80 - 120 PS4's on display at any given time, it COULD be possible. It's unlikely though.

Maybe there is some analytics guy out there that have a decent model to calculate that (ioi? certainly not paxter).

I tried to do some calculations myselft - naturally very hard to do without decent data. Some online stores do actually display their stock so I could get some indications about stock situation, that coupled with watching piles of boxes in stores give some indication (though hard to know how many boxes are just empty display boxes and how many more boxes might be in some room in the back).

From that I did some extrapolations to scale up to country level (online stores + physical store), then extrapolating again to world level (with some guesses thrown in to adjust for market sizes in variuos countries / parts of the world) (by now error margin is many hundred percents :)

From this sketchy calculation, 2 million sounds reasonable.

Again, I know these numbers are pretty worthless and prove absolutely nothing because they are founded on mud (or something even less firm)