Which will occur first? X1 pass WiiU or Ps4 50% marketshare?

[DonFerrari]

JustBeingReal said:

DonFerrari said:

JustBeingReal said:
I think PS4 could have easily hit 13.5 if not 14M by now, while I think Wii U is at about 7.5M based on Nintendo's recent sales update and XB1 could be about right on VGChartz, so 6.1M.

So 13.5M for PS4 and a joint 13.6M for both Wii U & Xbox One combined, I think it's a given PS4 will hit 50% market share this month or it's already done it.
I think PS4 had sold 12-12.5M by the end of September and I wouldn't be shocked if it's already sold well over a million more since then, even VGChartz own numbers, which usually heavily under-track the PS4's sales put it at 800k being sold from the end of September to the 18th of October.

Safe to say PS4 may have already hit 50% market share by now.

I don't think Xbox One will pass the Wii U in lifetime sales by the end of this year, not with Smash Bros and Amiibo on the horizon.

No way WiiU would be 7.5 because on September end they had shipped 7.19M so it would mean that they would need to ship 600k this month only (because less than 300k on channel is quite hard to imagine) and we have to remember they took a quarter to do that... so right now WiiU may be at 7.2M at most (I would say 7.1M is more likely).

X1 6.1 right now would mean 1.7M on channel, unlikely, they should be at least 6.5M right now.

PS4 is anywhere between 13-14M right now so your assumption of 13.5M seems right for me...

Where are you getting your figures from? Nintendo stated that they've sold 7.29 million Wii U's by the end of September here:

http://nintendonews.com/2014/10/wii-u-sales-7-29-million-worldwide/

Well you must be new here and ignored the 10 or more response to this that were done just yesterday. Whatever number a manufacturer say they sold during fiscal earnings means SHIPPED not SOLD THROUGH. So WiiU shipped 7.29 (my mistake for 7.19M) and considering minimum stock and channel amount to supply market for like 1 or 2 months in shelves that would mean 6.9-7M sold.

Nintendo must have sold more than that by now, especially considering we're in November, it could even be higher than 7.5million considering the month.

In order to hit 7.5 million from their official 7.29M sales announced for the end of September they'd only need to sell 52.5K a week over 4 weeks, but there was 4 and a bit weeks in October, so it's actually more than likely that they went above 7.5M.

Hahahahahahahha no, there is 4 weeks for fiscal reason. And is quite possible Wii haven't sold over 50k weekly in September.

I think topping 8 maybe into 9 million is possible for the Wii U by the end of November, with 11M now possible for the year's end.

You are quite hopping aren't you? Close to 9M in November would mean 1.8M a month (and them another 2M in December on your accounts) that means 500k weekly average, or 10X+ more than they have been selling up to September or October.

As for XBox One, where are you getting your shipped figures from? No one knows exactly how many Xbox Ones have been shipped, because Microsoft keeps stating combined shipment figures for it and the 360, like the last one of 2.4 million combined last quarter (june to sep end). Obviously and considering the quarter and launching in new markets accurate sales are almost impossible to derive without official specifics from Microsoft as the system was entering new markets and a completely untouched region in China, so overstuffing of that system is heavily likely and the system didn't do that huge over there.

I think 6.1M could be pretty bang on.

We are assuming X1 numbers based on the fall of demand of X360 and approxing holidays for X1. The exact sold number could vary greatly, but shipped is quite precise to be between 7.3-7.8M so 7.5M shipped is quite acceptable. 6.1M is an approximation based on that for ammount in channel and estimation based on the size of USA that we have 60%+. But if you believe WiiU sold 7.29M because of Nintendo declaration then you should think X1 sold between 7.3-7.8M and had already passed WiiU, why don't you believe this is the case for MS?

Microsoft had sold over 3 million by the end of 2013 (shipments were at 3.9M for 2013), they then shipped 1.2m between Jan and March end (just Xbox One), then it was a combined figure of 1.1 million for XBox One and 360 from April to June and now another combined figure of 2.4M for Xbox One and 360 from July to September end.

By the end of March this year we know that 5.1M Xbox Ones had been shipped total, then Microsoft starts combining Xbox One and 360 shipped figures together for the following 2 quarters (3.5M XB1 360 combined Q2-3), but adding these shipped figures all together Microsoft says they've shipped 8.6M consoles up until September's end.

Looking at VG Chartz numbers from 04/01/2014 to 27/09/2014 they have 360 selling 1,427,197 this year, obviously that could be right or wrong, but if we take it as correct until new official data is given then you have to deduct that amount from the shipped totals of both consoles combined it leaves us with 7.173M consoles shipped, it would be fair to say a few more 360's shipped more than were sold and there are likely consoles sitting on shelves, so maybe Xbox One has shipped 6.8M total, with 370K 360's sitting on shelves (drop-off of sales wouldn't be that well known for 360 until well into the year).

VGC numbers are probably wrong. But MS could have 0 extra X360 sitting on shelves because they already had shipped good amount of X360 during December. So any number estimation in this case is harder to do. 370k on shelves is a good number, but that could be carring over from December.

There's no way 7.8 million XB1's have been shipped (assuming that's what you meant by when you said 1.7M on channel), even if 360 only sold 1 million this year by the end of September there would still have to be more 360's in the supply chain, it would still leave us with 7.6M combined consoles shipped, not just Xbox One, it has to include the 360's shipments, because Microsoft gave us combined figures for Q2 and Q3.

Microsoft could have easily shipped 700k more XB1's than they need into tier 2 markets, existing markets and china (basically all markets combined), thinking about it could even be lower than 6.1M.

6.1M was just a gut feeling guess, but I think it's fair now that I've analyzed the numbers we have in a bit more detail.

To the best of my estimations and gut feelings yes I think it sold 6.1M, shipped distribution could vary greatly and not sure we would get an agreement. But for me 1-1.3M seems more likely (I gave the 1.7M possibility because there are people that think it shipped more, but I won't aknowledge much more than 6.1M sold going by the pattern we saw).

As for PS4 yeah I think Sony have probably shipped above 15M by now, I don't think averaging 1.4M a month across the last 14-15 months shipped is beyond them, especially considering they started at over 1.1M a month in 2013. I think well over 15M will have been sold come Black Friday, maybe it could hit 16M once Black Friday's over.

They probably will ship 2M in November (meaning 17M shipped on our estimation) so 15M is certain and 16M a possibilitie.

It seems our only disagreement is on WiiU sold number and that is because you are considering Nintendo Number to mean sold through, but if you ask any of the guys here they will confirm it's shipped because that is what they can announce on earnings. Of course if they go out of their way to announce that this amount is sold through (sitting in customer houses) like Sony done on 12M (that was outside of earnings report) I would accept blindly. Until there I will keep my estimative between 6.9-7M for September end for WiiU.

Anyway, this holiday will be great.