DonFerrari said:
X1 6.1 right now would mean 1.7M on channel, unlikely, they should be at least 6.5M right now. PS4 is anywhere between 13-14M right now so your assumption of 13.5M seems right for me... |
Where are you getting your figures from? Nintendo stated that they've sold 7.29 million Wii U's by the end of September here:
http://nintendonews.com/2014/10/wii-u-sales-7-29-million-worldwide/
Nintendo must have sold more than that by now, especially considering we're in November, it could even be higher than 7.5million considering the month.
In order to hit 7.5 million from their official 7.29M sales announced for the end of September they'd only need to sell 52.5K a week over 4 weeks, but there was 4 and a bit weeks in October, so it's actually more than likely that they went above 7.5M.
I think topping 8 maybe into 9 million is possible for the Wii U by the end of November, with 11M now possible for the year's end.
As for XBox One, where are you getting your shipped figures from? No one knows exactly how many Xbox Ones have been shipped, because Microsoft keeps stating combined shipment figures for it and the 360, like the last one of 2.4 million combined last quarter (june to sep end). Obviously and considering the quarter and launching in new markets accurate sales are almost impossible to derive without official specifics from Microsoft as the system was entering new markets and a completely untouched region in China, so overstuffing of that system is heavily likely and the system didn't do that huge over there.
I think 6.1M could be pretty bang on.
Microsoft had sold over 3 million by the end of 2013 (shipments were at 3.9M for 2013), they then shipped 1.2m between Jan and March end (just Xbox One), then it was a combined figure of 1.1 million for XBox One and 360 from April to June and now another combined figure of 2.4M for Xbox One and 360 from July to September end.
By the end of March this year we know that 5.1M Xbox Ones had been shipped total, then Microsoft starts combining Xbox One and 360 shipped figures together for the following 2 quarters (3.5M XB1 360 combined Q2-3), but adding these shipped figures all together Microsoft says they've shipped 8.6M consoles up until September's end.
Looking at VG Chartz numbers from 04/01/2014 to 27/09/2014 they have 360 selling 1,427,197 this year, obviously that could be right or wrong, but if we take it as correct until new official data is given then you have to deduct that amount from the shipped totals of both consoles combined it leaves us with 7.173M consoles shipped, it would be fair to say a few more 360's shipped more than were sold and there are likely consoles sitting on shelves, so maybe Xbox One has shipped 6.8M total, with 370K 360's sitting on shelves (drop-off of sales wouldn't be that well known for 360 until well into the year).
There's no way 7.8 million XB1's have been shipped (assuming that's what you meant by when you said 1.7M on channel), even if 360 only sold 1 million this year by the end of September there would still have to be more 360's in the supply chain, it would still leave us with 7.6M combined consoles shipped, not just Xbox One, it has to include the 360's shipments, because Microsoft gave us combined figures for Q2 and Q3.
Microsoft could have easily shipped 700k more XB1's than they need into tier 2 markets, existing markets and china (basically all markets combined), thinking about it could even be lower than 6.1M.
6.1M was just a gut feeling guess, but I think it's fair now that I've analyzed the numbers we have in a bit more detail.
As for PS4 yeah I think Sony have probably shipped above 15M by now, I don't think averaging 1.4M a month across the last 14-15 months shipped is beyond them, especially considering they started at over 1.1M a month in 2013. I think well over 15M will have been sold come Black Friday, maybe it could hit 16M once Black Friday's over.
