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Teeqoz on 31 October 2014
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theprof00 said:
Teeqoz said:
theprof00 said:
Teeqoz said:


You know UC4 releases in 2015? BTW I'm on mobile.

Yeah. Why? What is your point?


Because in the post I quoted you said that UC4 would need to have a 1 out of 4 attachrate to sell more than 5 million. So either you thought it releases this year, or you think the PS4 will only have sold 20 million by late 2015 :-O

 

Sure I'll bet. UC 4 will have sold more than 5 million by the end of 2016 (yes, 2016). 

And I also said that it would have to sell 7m this holiday to even hit 20m by 2015. I ALSO said (in the very next sentence, even), that even if in 2015 they sell 20m, it would be difficult since the last UC had less than 1 in 10 owners purchasing. I even posted the 10-week countdown thread (authored by myself) which doesn't include UC4 in this year.
Smh

5million by 2016? HAH
Ccertainly aiming low there. And here you both are telling me I'm being ridiculous, when you're giving it 2 holidays before 5m. pfft.
Again, let's make this simple. I'm not going to wait 2 years to finish this argument.

How about this.
No more than 1.7m first week
No more than 2.4m first month
No more than 4m by jan 1 2016


Jan 1 2016? That's not the bet I want to take. But it'll do way more than 1,7 million first week!

no, I'm saying that the lifetime sales will be way more than 5 million, and I assume you're talking lifetime as well. I don't think it'll pass 5 million before the end of 2015!

 

If you use attach rate from a system late in it's lifetime then the numbers will obviously be skewed. In that case, SSBU will only have a 1 to 9 attachrate, and will only sell ~2 million lifetime. We both know it will be waaay higher, which just proves that you can't use past attachrate to predict future sales. In that case Halo 3/4 would have a 1 to 2 attach-rate on the 360 and they'd sell 40 million each. Did that happen?