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Teeqoz on 31 October 2014
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theprof00 said:
Teeqoz said:
theprof00 said:
Thing is, both companies use different models.
Nintendo makes money off console and software.
They'll make good money off the consoles, and really good money off their upcoming software releases.

Sony on the other hand have a razorblade model. They lose money on the console and hope to make it back with sofware. The Sony software lineup isn't stellar, but there are some good looking AAA games coming out. I don't see them performing really well though. Maybe 5m max for new uncharted, 3m for bloodborne.

I think it's possible for nintendo to edge them out, but it really depends if Sony can bring the software.


First of all, UC 4 will pass 5 million easily, it'll probably come close to 10 million or more. Second of all, Sony makes money on hardware (not much for the PS4 though, but they don't lose money on it) and third of all Sony earns money from third party titles being sold on their system, Nintendo well, they don't really sell that much third party software (on the Wii U anyway). 

You think uncharted will sell on par with halo?

Not likely. It's a new system with 12.3m sold. Even if sony sold an additional 7m consoles during the holiday, and an additional 20m next year, 1 in 4 ps4 owners would have to buy it. UC has never had that kind of attach rate.

Even uncharted 2 only sold 6.5, let's say 7 for digital included. And that was with an install base of 40m. Uncharted 3 has the same numbers but released with a 65m userbase. That's 1 in 10.

The highest selling game on ps4 right now is destiny, made by bungie, huge marketing campaign, and best selling new IP ever...and that's only 3.3m

5m is generous.

Sony doesn't "make money" on hardware. They are "profitable" on hardware, which is a calculation figuring in one game, an extra controller, and the system etc. And yes, Sony makes money on third and second party as well. My point is that Sony needs install base and games sales. I think it looks very good for them, but you must agree that it's a tough comparison to nintendo. They recently released a new version of 3ds that is going to sell a lot, is overpriced, has a new smash brothers, etc. On top of which, Nintendo usually outperfoms everyone by a lot in holidays. Remember also that Vita isn't doing so hot.

Let's pretend vita and wiiU make the same amount of profit and cancel them out.
What we are then dealing with is deciding what will be more profitable, 3ds or ps4. Gut is telling me 3ds, though ps4 has a very good chance.


Try harder: http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/05/22/kaz-hirai-the-ps4-is-already-profitable-with-hardware-alone/

The same however can't be said about the Wii U.

And yes, I expect UC4 to do waaaay more than 5 million. When Destiny has managed 3,3 million in a month, on an installbase of ~ 12,3 (most likely undertracked though), I'm sure UC4 will do more.

 

let's assume software royalties are 10 dollars per game (which is in the right ballpark based on what we know), and let's also say cod sells 7-8 million on PS4+PS3. That's 70-80 million profit from Cod alone. Then we also have GTA:V remastered, which could pull some 3 million maybe. Then there's FarCry 4 which will also do some 3-4 million at least on PS platforms. Then there's LBP3, which will probably have a profit margin of 30$ per copy sold. Even if that only sells 2 million on PS3 and PS4 combined this year, then that's 60 million profit.Then there's all the other software continuosly being sold on the PS3. Add to that profits from hardware (rember I showed you PS4 alone has been profitable since may) of roughly 15 dollars (fairly modest) and assumed sales of 7 million in the holidays, that is another 105 million dollars of profit.