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I expect Wii to win in the early race but in the long run PS4 will beat Wii.

PS4 YTD
2014: 20M
2015: ~35M, at best close to 40M
March 2016: at best 43M so Wii will have a lead of 7m at least. It will only grow, till 2017 when relatively the Wii hype stops.


However this is under the assumption that PS4 will never have 20M sales in a single year. If they do hit 20M then PS4 will easily keep up with Wii.