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Mummelmann on 27 October 2014
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Michael-5 said:
Seece said:
Michael-5 said:

$349 XB1 shows desperation. It tells us that they have no major exclusive releasing for the next 12 months and need this boost now to prevent a crash in sales.

XB1 will likely outsell WiiU eventually, just not for a couple years. I'm surprised the Mario Kart 8 WiiU bundle isn't pushing that many sales.

What? You already know that isn't true.

XB1 has already outshipped WiiU, you're aware of that yes?

shipments =/= sales, Japan is a great example, didn't XB1 sell much much less then expected? What major exclusives does XB1 have between Halo MCC and Halo 5?

Mummelmann said:

You think the One will only sell 3-4 million next year and 2016? Or that the Wii U will sell 9-11 million or more next year and 2016? Both are equally unrealistic, either the One needs to go down about 50% yoy or the Wii U needs to increase 100-140% or so.

You think XB1 will sell 9-11 million units in any year? Realistically both will only sell ~4-6 million annually.

WiiU has sold 80% as well as XB1 in 2014, and Nintendo typically favors well with November/December sales.


I think the One will sell about 9 million in 2015, or 8.5 or even 10, it depends on quite a few factors. How is it realistic for it to sell 4-6 million? It's currently on track for at least 6.5 million this year with 7 million being just as likely, so you honestly think it'll be down yoy in 2015? You realize that you're suggesting perhaps 25-30 million lifetime for the One (not to mention the first time in history that a console will be heavily down yoy in its second CY) if it will struggle to beat the Wii U for a couple of years, and that's just madness, there is nothing to suggest that at all, heck; the 360 sold about 6.8 million in its first CY without any competition from contemporary, record-breaking consoles so seeing as how the One is tracking similar to that in its first CY and the Wii U is getting beat routinely by the Gamecube launches aligned, how can you possible claim any of this with any kind of sense or logic?

I just don't understand how you're coming up with these scenarios at all.

PS: I think you'll find that 2 million is not 80% of 3.1 million, with current standing numbers. With the very likely overtrack/undertrack situation based on recent shipment figures (Nintendo shipped 300k Wii U's in Q3 2013, no reason to think this has tripled or even more and even at double that would make only 600k, which does not correspond with what we know from official sources), it could be even a difference of approx. 1.8 million vs 3.3 or so, making the scenario even worse. Once more; I wonder where you get all this from.