We've all seen how both Microsoft and Sony have had their faces smacked by the cheap and innovative Nintendo Wii.
This leaves a big question, what will the next generation be like? (I know a lot of people believe MS will quit unless they get some more success into the 360, but for this let's assume they make a "720")
What will Nintendo do?
- Do you think they will try to play it safe and make a HD Wii, without a lot of new materiel to it, but power and improved controls?
- Will they focus on strengthening the innovative element and try to make extra "gimmicks" for their next Wii? (Perhaps with a build in camera? It could track the player using the sensor bar. Will they try to incorporate Johnny Lee's headtracking?)
- Will it use blu-ray?
What will Sony do?
- Will they go for another power machine that focuses on being a media center aside from a gaming console? And will they try to counter a X720 if it turns out to be a power machine? (Like they have tried with the PS3)
- Will they try to make a more casual console to try and get a grip on a greater audience?
- Will they try to make a machine that centered mostly around Live which could appeal to a more casual audience? (With their "Digital download is the future"-thing?)
- Will they try to make a machine focused on gaming and power so there is a product for the casuals and one for the hardcore?
- Will they use blu-ray?
And for the general situation you could ask this:
- Will the market be satisfied with only one casual console?
- If there is only one power console on the market, will it dominate the market?
Nintendo:
I think that Nintendo should focus on increasing their innovation in the consoles. I could easily imagine a build-in camera that would find the player via the sensorbar/Wiimote. This would allow for even greater innovation in its games and could allow for headtracking, like we've seen from Johnny Lee, in games. I don't think they need to make a HD console to keep up with the next generation. Just make a machine that can do great graphics in a 576p resolution damn it!
And if they decide to make that kind of console, I don't think they would need to use blu-ray, but I think it would be a good idea to have a blu-ray drive if there are ones that aren't too expensive.
Sony:
I think they will focus more on bringing down the production costs as much as possible before making their console. I could see them using an advanced version of the Cell (using all 8 SPE's, higher clock speed) because it would be good for developers as it would hopefully mean that the machine would be somewhat similar in construction to the PS3. But I definetly think they would go for a combined media and gaming machine again, but with the jump from PS3 to PS4 (both in retailprice and the architechture of the machine) being less than that from PS2 to PS3.
Microsoft:
I think it is very likely that MS would make two primary versions of the 720. One with focus on Live to download games and movies (with ~500 GB space perhaps) and one with more focus on gaming with more power related features. I think MS will try to avoid the blu-ray if they can and encourage DLC for their games instead, but I think they will end up having a blu-ray drive anyway. I still think they will try their best to stay with a computerbased structure on the console.
In general, I hope there will be more competetion on both the hardcore and the casual side. If the PS4 is f.ex. 1,3 times as powerfull as the 720, this will pull the games on the PS4 down, unless it can dominate the hardcore market. (The scenario can be reversed of course)
I think that Nintendo will try to keep the Crown of Casual gaming, but Micrsoft will challenge them more than they did with the 360, but I think Sony will keep focused on being the more powerfull console on the market, but depending on how well Home does, to a certain degree I think they'll be able to atract more casual players as well.
