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Seece on 25 October 2014
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Hedra42 said:
Seece said:
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.

Nope, this isn't hilarious, it's pathetic - for using 2 days of sales at the end of May to suggest that Wii U has a low attach rate in the first month generally. I'm pointing out that the examples you used to back it up are irrelevant, because of the varying dates they come out during the month.

They are similar time frames to Smash, as is the Halo MCC to Titanfall and Halo 3. Thus they are the most relevant.

And "first month" in these terms obviously means its first NPD.

Smash is coming out on 21st November. It will have 9 days sales, compared with Mario Kart 8's 2 days sales.

MK8 reached 17% in 2 days. In fact, had it been released 7 days earlier, it would have been around 22%.

Super Mario 3D World only did 14% in 9 days.

Even when put on a level ground, you can't gauge it in this way - the appeal of the game itself and the way it is packaged has a lot to do with it. Not only that, Smash Bros is a real wild card this time around - Nintendo's marketing strategy with the staggered release of the 3DS and Wii U and interconnectivity between the two versions of the game will either be a stroke of genius and hugely enhance sales of software and hardware, or it will be a complete failure and do nothing. Opinions on that are very much divided.

But to state that a console has a generally low attach rate by citing the attach rate of a game after 2 days of sales is nonsense - especially when comparing with Titanfall, which was released on the 11th of the month.

 

Eeesh, you're still missing the point.

The games I used are relevent for this discussion because they offer a similar time frame.

Halo releases on the 11th, so did Titanfall.

Mario Kart towards the end (thus the super low attach rate for a huge game) and Super Mario 3D the exact same week Smash will.

If MK and Mario had released on the 1st and aquired the 30%~ attach rate like you show, how would that benefit Smash predictions given it launches later in the month? Because as my figures show it wouldn't have a 30% attach rate.

But I'm not even saying Smash can't have a 30% attach rate, it has all the chance of performing much better than Mario and Mario Kart, it's just there as a guide.