World Hardware Sales, Market Share, Trends and Predictions for 2007

[Sullla]

Slimebeast said:

And it might have that lower price, that mass market price starting at $199. And after all, based on all this I'm predicting no more than a 60-70% sales increase compared to fall '06 for what looks to be the X360's best time of it's life. So I may ask anyone, really, what can go wrong?

The price. The 360 is a very good console, but it's still too expensive. Even with a price cut to $300, it will still be too expensive. (You don't honestly believe that sales will suddenly spike for the core version, right? It's been out on the market for a year and a half now, and clearly people do not want the core version. That argument strains credibility.) If the 360 can't even outsell the PS2, how is it going to sell 8 million units in just six months? After averaging roughly 300-350k worldwide each month so far this year? bigfatj and cjpierciiw are right; it's just not going to happen. That doesn't mean the 360 will have a bad holiday season - far from it - just that it won't get anywhere close to 18 million. I think somewhere along the lines of 14-15 million looks more accurate.

Yes, there's going to be some fantastic games on the 360 (and PS3) this fall. The only problem is that the high entry price of these systems is going to limit sales of both hardware and software. (This is something that both gaming companies and fans are having difficulty grasping.) Just look at the NPD sales for May: the excellent Forza 2 was soundly destroyed by a crummy Mario Party 8 and edged out by the months-old Wii Play. Like them or hate them, these games are cheap, fun, and appeal to the casual market.

The dirty secret no one wants to talk about is that a bunch of high-profile franchises exclusive to 360/PS3 are going to sell way under the numbers done by previous incarnations. The last couple Grand Theft Auto games were 10 million plus sellers - does anyone think that's going to happen with GTA4? I can't possibly see it happening, given the small install bases and high entry prices. (Compare buying a $150 PS2 for GTA3 last generation versus a $400 360 or $600 PS3. Very different.) We'll see what happens; I just think there's going to be shock and disappointment when some of these "AAA" titles struggle to sell a million copies. It shouldn't come as a surprise, but it will be.