By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
retroking1981 on 23 October 2014
Edit Thread
KingdomHeartsFan said:

retroking1981 said:


XOne will have so much support from 3rd parties that it can't do worse than GC/OG XB imo. My guess is it'll settle between to the two previous Xboxes in terms of sales, probably be a neighbour of the NES in the all time top selling consoles chart.

I'm curious where you think all those extra sales are gonna come from?  

It lost a huge portion of its market share in NA, last gen it was around 65% I think and now its under 50%.

Its obviously gonna do a lot poorer in Europe, basically Sony land and I'm not sure about the UK but I'm assuming they lost a good portion of market share there.

Japan is irrelavent and I see rest of the world doing around 5m including China. 

I don't see it reaching 60m.

Edit: I see it reaching 45-50m.

I agree but to be fair I never gave a number, I  just that it'll be between 360 and OG XBox and probably neighbour the NES. To do that it has to sell between 49.10m which is currently SNES in 11th place and 80.82m which is PSP in 9th place. NES is snuggled in the middle at 61.91m.

But to break it down.

PS3 has sold 28m in NA and 360 47m. I think PS4 will beat the XOne to second place in NA this gen but not to the same extent so I think XOne should hit 30m minimum there.

Europe will be much much more one sided. 360 sold 25.34m there and OG XB 7.17m. XOne will be closer to the OG here, probably 10-15m.

Thats a 40-45m pessimistic minimum imo. That would fall short of taking over the SNES but there's one more factor which I think will help nudge it past...

The Wii has become the Wii U.

I know the whole casual argument but 100m owners can't be ignored. Even if only 20-30m of those Wii owners were 'gamers' they still need somewhere to go for their gaming. The Wii U isn't going to appease them so I think there's definitely an audience that are going to migrate to XOne/PS4. Then there's multi console ownership. No doubt a lot of the 100m Wii owners also had one of the others, this gen there's gonna be a lot more PS4-XOne combos out there.  I think this could be enough to give it an extra 5-10m, again a bit of a pessimistic estimate imo.

So my estimate is very similar to yours at 45-55m, but I honestly think thats a minimum.