| Vena said:
Looking at the YoY is probably the wrong way to go about this analysis. Yes, the Vita will end up YoY but its going to end it with abysmal end-of-year momentum that will hurt it badly in the early 2015 year and beyond. Momentum loss is so much worse than YoY changes (unless they are drastic). The cannabilizing of sales by the 3DS is painful to witness. Likewise, the 3DS had a great year in 2013... with dead momentum come 2014 and we saw how that ended up. Hopefully, Nintendo can maintain this rekindled momentum into 2015 with the continuing releases and interest from legs on Smash, YW2, MH4G, and Pokemon, and round-off the year with FF:Explorers. 2015 could see decent continuations from other titles like Xenoblade, STEAM, and third party support. The modularity and customization of the n3DS and themes might keep their revenue streams high as well. The n3DS/3DS are in general in woeful need of AA-titles, but the system is absolutely packed with million-seller killer titles. |
I understand the momentum argument, but momentum can be built and frittered away quite easily.
Vita had momentum in early 2013 after the price cut, which was frittered away by the middle months of the year and then was built up again after the slim release. They carried that on with at least some compelling software in Q1 and a particularly strong March and at least a couple of desirable games a month. Momentum has been lost given that we're literally just waiting for November with Dengeki Bunko and Phantasy Star.
Does 3DS have a particularly strong Q1/Q2 to keep any of this momentum they've built up, or will they have to do it again from scratch?
A baseline should hold at least, because they've got long-term desirable software, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest that this isn't just going to be a nice spike to hardware (like an exaggerated version of what Vita had in early 2013) and then a fall back down to whatever levels it should be. A mid-tier port and an untested IP aren't really going to change that.
As for the whole YoY thing though, it's mostly just for fun. It was nice to see the system up over a dismal 2012 in 2013, and it's been nice to see it up again this year. I realise it's lost momentum again, but it can build it back - sadly, not based on anything announced (by my reckoning, there's only 4 "big" games announced for next year - Persona; Senran Kagura; God Eater & Sword Art Online, plus a wild card in Kantai Collection. But all the announced games are IP's already on the system).
