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For the developper profits is all that matters, if u measure a game on its expectations then the opinion on which games are succesful will vary as different people have different expectations.

If you do look at expectations then look at the companies own expectations, if they sell out its because they sold more then they expected to need, and when there is too many copies in stores that they need to reduce the price its that they made too many and thus didnt sell as expected.

Although ill say profit is all that matters, its not only profit for the games sales that matters, its also wether you develop franchise value. Certain games create hidden value in that the franchise becomes popular and will build futur sales of sequels, spin offs etc of that franchise.