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17m is the sweet spot


ps4 sold 4.2m in 2013
oct - dec sales are generally 50% of ytd (xbox and wii got bigger Holiday quarter than playstation historically)
jan - sept 2014 ytd for ps4 is about 7 - 7.5m ( Japan Launch, supply issues and a big September)

so lets go for 40 - 45% as oct - dec sales or 6m



17m is not out of reach. but ps4 can fail that Goal. both is possible