| daredevil.shark said: IMO Patcher intentionally makes wrong predictions. And thus Patcher always strikes back. This guy knows how to make himself relevant. People at forum makes fun of him. And he uses that "fame" to earn money. PS4 HW sales up almost triple in September and more than double my estimate. Fortunately, my report contained over 40 estimates, many closer Source: I am paid well because I am pretty accurate predicting earnings. I make a lot of mistakes that cancel one another out Source: I get paid to forecast earnings, not unit sales. It is one metric I use to estimate revenue, and if sum of my errors approximates zero, fine Source: |
Michael PachterI'm not sure if getting fame by making bad predictions is a sure fire way to make money as an analyst.
Also, considering the PS4 was more than double his prediction, saying "Fortunately, my report contained over 40 estimates, many closer" doesn't really bolster confidence in him. For one, because being closer could still be off by a huge margin, and also because only "many" were closer. That would suggest at least a few were even more off than the PS4 estimate.
I'd also disagree with him that a bunch of errors cancelling each other out is fine. The performance of seperate products can mean very different things for the future of a company. For a hypothetical, let's say a company has two products. One is an old stalwart that is no longer growing significantly, and the other is a new product the company hopes will be a significant part of their revenue in the future. Last fiscal year the old product had 100 in revenue, the new product had 5. Pachter predicts revenue will be flat based on a small decrease to 95 for the old product and a doubling to 10 for the new. In actuality, the old product was up slightly to 101 and the new product was down to 4. You still get the same sum, but you end up with a very different situation for their forward earnings.
