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Even if Wii U does above GC numbers, it will still be a failure.

Actually, more than the GC, because Nintendo still made a lot of money from the GC and with the Wii U they sold the console at a loss for a year a year and half.
Also, with so few games being released on the console - unlike the GC days - they aren't getting a lot in royalties, either.

At the end of Wii U's generation, from the home console perspective, they might end up paying for the R&D and the losses they took with the Wii U, but then how much in profit did they actually gained from a whole generation?

If they had the support that GC had, if they hadn't cut on sports franchises exclusive to their systems, and maybe things would be better today.