If Microsoft didn't release a console and it was only Sony and Nintendo, then the PS3 would have won over the Wii. The PS3 and 360 lost against the Wii because they were competing consoles with most of the same games and Sony lost a lot of its fans because the PS3 was too expensive while the 360 had a one year lead and a lot more exclusives early in the gen. Because so many more people owned a 360, it took such a long time for Sony to make a comeback because the more casual gamer types purchase the console that their friends own.
If Microsoft didn't release a console or dropped out after the original Xbox and it was just Sony vs Nintendo, the Wii would have still sold because of all the motion control hype, but all of those big third parties that were developing next gen games would have been only on PS3 and PC. PS3 would have sold more.
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