I don't think indie games and online gaming will be where it is right now, the xbox brand helped put a spotlight on those things and helped give them more market appeal. Although, I think PC gaming might have more of a retail presence as well since that would mean many of xbox/pc only games would continue to be PC only. At least during the first generation. A game like Doom 3 or Elder Scrolls: Morrowind would have to wait a whole generation before making it's console debut, or skim down the visuals and features even further.
I think you also have to wonder if Sony would have invested into the PS3 like they did if not for the Xbox. Perhaps Nintendo wouldn't feel the need to think outside the box with the Wii to compete with Microsoft and Sony. Meaning no form of kinect or move.
