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Hmm I don't see how Sony will lose money by bundling MGS4 or GTAIV with a PS3. I'm going to give u some numbers out of my ass, but I'll try to be realistic ok. Say Sony sold 400k GTAIV PS3, and who knows, paid 30 for each copy of GTA4 in it. Then they lost 12 mil dollars.
But lets also assume GTAIV sells 6mil copies and Sony makes 10 for each copy, you guessed it, Sony made (60-12) 48 mil! and they increased their userbase by quite a bit too! And with that 400k extra PS3, they can make even more with more software and movie sales.
So it's not really a bad move by Sony, unless they ship over 2mil bundles lol.. but then, making no money on GTAIV but increasing your install base by 2 mil is a pay off in itself =D
I think Microsoft was a bit crazy paying 50 mil for the GTAIV contents, but somehow, that's going to help them out. Let's hope so for their sake.
Also remember that right now, alot of PS3 sales are coming from Others, meaning every PS3 sold in EU is more profitable than every 360 sold in the US. I think so anyway.
Anyway, those were just random numbers which i though were realistic enough to help back me up lol. Don't flame me for it.