Clearly Destiny is not destined to sell 30 million. I don't think 20 million is possible at this point. If we look at what some people thought Destiny would kill (CoD) and see what the last mega successful version produced we see that CoD: Black Ops 2 launched (PS360PC) with 12 million and ended up on 27 million. That means launch week was 44% of lifetime sales.
In theory as a new IP launch week sales should be a lower proportion of lifetime sales than a highly anticipated game like CoD. But Destiny still managed very high week 1 sales for what it is. So I'm going to preduct that Destiuny week 1 represents 40% of it's lifetime potential. But given the fairly low reviews and the word of mouth being mixed (some love it, a lot of people don't rate it as a total package). That might make it a more front loaded game so launch seek could get to as high as 50% lifetime. But I'm going to be optimistic and say 40%.
Launch week sales for Destiny was 4.8 million. So I think the lifetime sales for Destiny will be around 12 million. That's damned good, but no CoD killer. However it is a good base to build from IF Bungie can deliver a more universally acclaimed game next time 'round.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
