Soundwave said:
3DS will sell 20+ million in both North America and Europe individually.
That's more than the GameCube in both of those territories WW.
They still have some juice there.
Coming up with gimmicks to sell hardware is not easy. You don't just snap your finger, a lot of it boils down to timing, having some fortune in finding the right idea, and really ... a lot of luck. Nintendo tried with glasses-free 3D and a tablet controller to find the next fads and failed. I guess vitality sensor never even made it out of their R&D because it simply doesn't work on large portions of the population.
MS bailed out on Kinect too. I think in general people are getting tired of controller gimmicks ... after last gen of plastic guitars, balance boards, Wiimotes, steering wheels, cameras, plastic zappers, etc. etc. people are burnt out on accessorie garbage all over their living room.
The barrier of gaming has been broken down by the multitouch touch screen on tablets/phones now ... now anyone can play if they want to. That's what the DS Touch Generations and Wii Sports/Fit crazes evolved into. Apple won that battle. So that's not even a problem anymore either. Casuals are well served now and so are hardcore players.
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I'm not doubting the 3DS success this generation. I'm doubting the market success for dedicated handheld games next generation. Dedicated gaming is slowly becoming niche thanks to mobile game industry and it has the potential to evolve into something bigger. Of course that's speculation, but its something to worry about.
And you're right that finding the next big thing (or gimmick as you see it) is difficult. But the reality is Nintendo consoles just don't sell without third party support or a interesting new device or game series.
I don't think the Fusion can sell 80 million systems if mobile gaming gets bigger and evolves into a fiercer competition.
