XOne vs. Wii U vs. Vita in the race to 10m

[ICStats]

prinz_valium said:

ICStats said:
Globally, PSV is doing similar numbers to 2013. In 2013 it did around 1.5M between Oct-Dec. Based on that I'd say it has a chance to reach 10M by end of the year so I pick Vita as hitting 10M first.

Another way to look at it is estimate that half of yearly sales are the holidays, so estimates by end of the year:

1st PSV 1.51 * 2 + 7.36 =10.38M
2nd Wii U 1.84 * 2 + 5.42 = 9.10M
3rd XB1 2.44 * 2 + 3.06 = 7.94M

 

historically xbox has the biggest holiday bump if u compare to the whole year sales

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php

I calculated these for X360, Oct-Dec as % of whole year:

  2006 - 48% (this would correspond to the current year for XB1)
  2007 - 51%
  2011 - 53%
  2012 - 54%

- So nah, I don't think Santa Clause is going to bring a ton more XB1s than my estimate.

- Wii U was heavily back loaded last year, selling 56% in Oct-Dec but this year is likely more front loaded with MK8.

- Vita last year sold 47% in Oct-Dec.

Here are numbers with +/- 3% ranges:

 Vita 10.2~10.4M
 Wii U 8.9~9.4M
 XB1 7.7~8.3M

I feel fairly good about the rough estimate above.