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Mummelmann on 02 October 2014
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Shadow1980 said:
Mummelmann said:
RavenXtra said:
3DS hitting 20k in NA is just embarassing. Nintendo really dropped the ball this year with 3DS. Hopefully New 3DS & a better software schedule can raise momentum next year.


That seems very telling of the handheld market though; it is most assuredly a bad sign for dedicated handheld consoles if they need another hardware revision every year just to keep afloat. There are bad times looming for dedicated handhelds and I still believe my prediction a few years back will hold (the 3DS will be the last traditional dedicated handheld console we'll see from any manufacturer).


Except new models have always "kept handhelds afloat." They usually have the same effect as price cuts. The Game Boy Pocket gave a slight boost to the Game Boy in the U.S., whose sales had slowed to about 2 million a year on average, then the GB Color came out (still technically a new model of the original Game Boy, kinda like the New 3DS in relation to the original 3DS) and the GB sold over six million units in the units in 1997 and 1998. The GBA SP gave a decent short-term boost to GBA sales and ultimately displaced the original. DS sales didn't start to take off until the DS Lite came out; the DSi also appeared to give a decent short-term boost. The PSP got a good boost from the PSP-2000, especially in Japan. The PSV Slim is what caused the Vita's sales to rebound to no-long-disaster levels in Japan. With the 3DS, it actually got a price cut that boosted sales, whereas the XL simply displaced much of the original's sales (costing only $30 more while being overall better probably being the main reason) and the 2DS appeared to do bupkis (I blame the form factor). It remains to be seen if the New 3DS actually boosts sales or not. Like other models that boosted sales of a particular handheld line, it marks a significant improvement over its predecessor, with multiple improvements being offered at the same price as previous models, so I think it has a good chance of giving a good boost to sales. Since it's first test is coming in Japan in nine days, I guess we'll find out when the Media Create numbers start rolling in.

I also think a lot of this "last handheld generation ever" doom-and-gloom rhetoric is hyperbole. Just because the 3DS won't ever reach DS sales numbers, the DS's 150 million units would probably have been tough to replicate even if smartphones had never been invented (and I have my doubts that mobile is the primary reason handheld sales aren't great; they might be a cause, but probably aren't the cause). The 3DS stands a good chance of reaching 80 million, especially if the New 3DS gives a decent boost to sales, and 80 million is far from a "doom-y" number.


Handhelds have always had annual revisions to spark the market? There is an increasing number of revisions in order to keep up with the movements of the general consumer elecronics market as a whole and these revisions are showing a smaller and shorter window of effect today. If mobile/tablet is not the main cause for the collapse, then what on earth is? If this were any other market, with one branch seeing a 60% decrease or more over the span of one "generation" while another branch exploded and expanded fiercely; no one would ever doubt the simple cause and effect in the market as a whole.

Should the 3DS manage 80 million, which seems doubtful at this point, that will leave a total installed base of around 95-100 million for dedicated handhelds in the 8th generation, or about 140 million down in one generation, if that doesn't spell trouble then I don't know what does. Top that with the fact that the Vita is unlikely to reach 20 million and the 3DS will probably fall short of 80 million and you might end up with a total installed base of around 85-90 million instead; making the whole situation all the more dire. No matter how many of your charts and graphs you post; there is no denying that the handheld console market is in serious trouble compared to the 7th gen and there is also no denying that the home console market will contract, all of this has reasons, and I would like you to tell me what these are if not the splintering of the gaming industry and the rise of the alternative platforms (that are becoming the standard fast).

Also: The Gameboy ran a whole seven years before the first revision and had only one more and only for Japan, the last (Japanese exclusive) was nine years after release. The Gameboy Color was released in 1998 and had no proper hardware revisions during its run into 2003. The Gameboy Advance, releasing in 2001, had two revisions; the Advance SP and the Gameboy Micro, for the entirety of its 5-7 (China or elsewhere) run. See a pattern? More revisions as time goes by; the market is accelerating, the DS had the DS Lite, DSi and DSi XL during its lifespan, the first came after two years on the market and 2 1/2 years after that; the DSi released (with the DSi XL). Now look at the 3DS: it was forced to cut the price from 249$ to 169$ due to slow sales, 169$ being only 20$ above the original DS' launch price about 7 years prior and Nintendo released the 3DS XL already about 17 months after the initial launch of the 3DS. Then, only 15 months after the XL; the 2DS was released and now, only one year (and two days) after the 2DS, yet another revision is releasing in Japan.

What does the above tell you? The 3DS is still plunging yoy despite two revisions and a huge price cut and great software and no competition to speak of; clearly the market must have changed dramatically in the past few years and since the DS' heyday, why is that? What has happened if I'm wrong? The market is accelerating and the handhelds are being exposed to the break-neck pace of the mobile/tablet industry. Three revisions in three-and a half years for the 3DS versus two revisions for the DS over the course of 4.5 years, two revisions for the GB Advance over the course of 5 years, no proper revisions for the GB color and one revision for the GB in seven years.

It's all there plain as day for us all to see; the market is changing before our eyes and the dedicated handhelds are getting hammered and beaten out there. Despite all of Nintendo's efforts; the 3DS is till continuing its downward spiral.