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DerNebel on 25 September 2014
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Kresnik said:
Aielyn said:

So I really don't think 39k is all that bad considering it's a Nintendo console, and considering sales patterns of other comparable titles (I included Wonderful 101 because it's another Platinum title - if Bayonetta 2 follows that pattern, it'll be at about 338k by this time next year). In the end, it comes down to legs, not week 1, on Nintendo systems.


But, aside from Wonderful 101, did you actually compare sales patterns of any comparable titles?  The only link seems to be "available on WiiU".  There doesn't seem to be any link between genre; target audience; amount of marketing etc.

Aielyn said:

Dragon Quest X sold 35k in week 1 in Japan (now at 200k).

Aside from this looking like it's another victim of VGC's pretty steady overtracking (I'll get onto that later in the post), check the release schedule of the game:

TitlePublisherRegionDateDistribution
Dragon Quest X: Mezameshi Itsutsu no Shuzoku Online Square Enix Japan 30th March 2013 Retail
Dragon Quest X: Nemureru Yuusha to Michibiki no Meiyuu Online Square Enix Japan 05th December 2013 Retail

Two versions of the game - Original release + expansion - tracked in one SKU.  Sales of DQX individually are probably going to be more like 60% or so of those 200k.

Aielyn said:

Wii Party U sold 76k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold nearly 800k to date.

Are you expecting Bayonetta 2 to be a mandatory bundle throughout a significant period of the WiiU's life like Wii Party U was?

Aielyn said:

The Wonderful 101 sold a little under 6k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold 52k to date.

This one I'm really struggling with.  Japanltdrank have it at 27k.  It's pretty impressive that VGC have it at almost double that.

On the subject of overtracking - lifetime sales of a game in Japan comes down to how long ioi decides to continue tracking them.  Some games get weeks and weeks and weeks of ~ 500-1k sales charting at 50-75 in VGC's Japan sales, when we haven't seen them in either Media Create or Dengeki's top 50's for months.

Or, they could track the 1st week sales:

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/70525/metal-gear-solid-hd-edition/Japan/

And then just randomly throw in some numbers for the remaining sales without any real semblance of tracking to it (more sales in 2013 for the game - 15k - than the 6 months following release including a holiday period - 9k?)

Point being, legs are all over the place.

And I don't even want to get started on VGChartz pre-orders, in particular with Japanese titles which are horrifically all over the place.

So I wasn't imagining it when I thought that W101 numbers in Japan are weird. Good to know. That game still constantly selling around 500 units per week in Japan seemed very wrong to me.