They would only drop the price if Microsoft do it first (yes, removing the Kinect is not a price drop, it appears that $450 and $350 are the sweet prices for the XOne this year), and if that affect PS4 sales, which I think is unlikely.
Japan is a dying market for home console. Even if some few games give some timely boost I can´t see that lasting more than a few weeks, see Mario Kart. Even doubling the baseline it dosen´t effect WW sales that much.
The situation in Europe is strange. Former Wii audience has migrate to tablet and smartphones in NA and Japan (spacially Japan). In the USA, PS4 is traking behind the Wii after only 10 months, even after a inicial launch almost twice as big, however in Europe it´s doing much, much better (if VGChartz is correct).
20 is possible, but I would like to see this year hollydays first.
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